Game number 3

Moshe Tissona (2 pts) vs. Jon Royset (0 pts) (Match to 25)


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Match Information

Moshe Tissona's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Jon Royset's rating: 0 (Exp 0)
Date: July 13, 2003
Event: World Championship 2003
Round: Final
Place: Monte Carlo
Annotator: Casper van der Tak, Chuck Bower, Alex Zamanian, Tom Suzanski, and GNU 0.14


Annotation
Casper van der Tak:

Introduction

Tissona gets an early lead in development by an opening 31 followed by a 22. He overplays the latter a bit, giving Royset a slight chance to hit a shot and escape a back checker. Tissona rolls another strong double, 44, which allows him to build a broken prime and the 16-anchor. Royset hits, risking a return hit, which is not entirely justified. Tissona correctly doubles, and Royset correctly takes. Tissona misses an opportunity to play more aggressively against Royset's single back checker, and after a series of difficult play decisions for both players Royset's brings it home. The race that follows is quite close. The bear-in is not very interesting, but the bear-off shows some more interesting play decisions. Tissona makes a few minor technical errors, but wins in the end and takes a 4-0 lead.

Move number 1: Moshe Tissona to play 31

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|5O ' ' '3X '5X ' ' ' '2O|
|   |
|  31  |      |
|5X ' ' '3O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 167, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIAlAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/5 6/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/5 6/5 +0.232
  56.1% 17.4% 0.8% - 43.9% 11.7% 0.4%  
  2 2 24/23 13/10 -0.002 ( -0.234)
  50.3% 14.2% 0.6% - 49.7% 13.4% 0.4%  
  3 2 13/9 -0.014 ( -0.246)
  49.9% 14.6% 0.6% - 50.1% 13.8% 0.6%  
  4 2 24/20 -0.021 ( -0.252)
  50.2% 12.7% 0.6% - 49.8% 13.3% 0.4%  
  5 2 13/10 6/5 -0.021 ( -0.253)
  50.2% 14.1% 0.6% - 49.8% 14.4% 0.8%  

Move number 2: Jon Royset to play 52

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|5O ' ' '2X '4X2X ' ' '2O|
|   |
|      |  52  |
|5X ' ' '3O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 167
Position ID: sGfwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIkqAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/22 13/8

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/22 13/8 -0.251
  43.7% 11.2% 0.5% - 56.3% 17.6% 0.6%  
  2 2 13/11 13/8 -0.318 ( -0.067)
  41.8% 11.7% 0.5% - 58.2% 18.7% 1.0%  
  3 2 13/8 6/4 -0.384 ( -0.132)
  40.6% 10.6% 0.4% - 59.4% 19.4% 1.1%  
  4 2 13/6 -0.385 ( -0.134)
  40.3% 10.8% 0.5% - 59.7% 19.5% 1.0%  
  5 2 24/22 8/3 -0.463 ( -0.212)
  39.1% 10.0% 0.4% - 60.9% 22.0% 1.3%  

Move number 3: Moshe Tissona to play 22

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|4O ' ' '2X '4X2X '1O '1O|
|   |
|  22  |      |
|5X ' ' '4O '|   |5O ' ' ' '2X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 163, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: 4PPgASSwZ/ABMA Match ID: MAEpAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/22 13/11 6/4(2)

 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 R 13/11(2) 6/4(2) +0.502
 
62.2% 18.8% 0.7% - 37.8% 9.4% 0.5% +0.336 +0.458
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.014
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177750272  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  2 R 24/22(2) 6/4(2) +0.463 ( -0.039)
 
61.4% 17.0% 0.7% - 38.6% 7.8% 0.3% +0.320 +0.419
0.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.014
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177750272  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
3 R 24/22 13/11 6/4(2) +0.433 ( -0.069)
 
61.0% 17.6% 0.6% - 39.0% 9.6% 0.4% +0.297 +0.389
0.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.014
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177750272  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  4 R 6/4(2) 5/3*(2) +0.379 ( -0.123)
 
59.0% 21.1% 0.9% - 41.0% 10.2% 0.5% +0.290 +0.336
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.015
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177750272  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  5 2 13/9 6/4(2) +0.425 ( -0.077)
  60.6% 19.5% 0.7% - 39.4% 10.1% 0.4%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: This combination of a little bit of everything used to be more popular some years ago. 13/11(2) 6/4(2) is strongest, and also 24/22(2) 6/4(2) is better. I play 13/11(2) 6/4(2) in similar early opening positions, unless my opponent has made a strong point (bar-point, 5-point or 4-point) and the score argues for reducing the gammon rates.

Move number 4: Jon Royset to play 62

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O1X ' '2X '2X2X2X1O '1O|
|   |
|      |  62  |
|4X ' ' '4O '|   |5O ' '1X '1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 155, Jon Royset 160
Position ID: 2GbkASTg8+ABJA Match ID: cAkrAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 22/14*

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 22/14* -0.323
  42.4% 10.4% 0.5% - 57.6% 19.1% 0.7%  
  2 2 24/22 8/2 -0.628 ( -0.305)
  33.2% 7.4% 0.2% - 66.8% 15.9% 0.6%  
  3 0 24/22 13/7 -0.714 ( -0.391)
  31.7% 6.6% 0.2% - 68.3% 17.6% 0.7%  
  4 0 24/16 -0.820 ( -0.497)
  33.3% 7.0% 0.2% - 66.6% 27.8% 1.0%  
  5 0 22/16 8/6 -0.866 ( -0.543)
  31.6% 6.7% 0.2% - 68.4% 25.3% 1.1%  

Move number 5: Moshe Tissona to play 64

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|4O1O ' '2X '2X2X2X ' '1O|
|1 |
|  64  |      |
|4X ' ' '4O '|   |5O ' '1X '1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 169, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: 4PPgBSDYZvAAUg Match ID: MAEzAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/21 22/16

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 bar/21 22/16 +0.210
  55.6% 16.6% 0.5% - 44.4% 11.0% 0.4%  
  2 2 bar/15 +0.205 ( -0.005)
  55.5% 16.9% 0.5% - 44.5% 11.3% 0.4%  
  3 2 bar/21 13/7 +0.201 ( -0.009)
  55.2% 18.3% 0.7% - 44.8% 12.4% 0.6%  
  4 2 bar/21 24/18 +0.181 ( -0.029)
  54.9% 16.2% 0.7% - 45.1% 11.3% 0.4%  
  5 2 bar/21 8/2 -0.039 ( -0.249)
  49.2% 16.3% 0.6% - 50.8% 15.2% 0.9%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: Either this or B/15. The drawback of the connected move B/21 22/16 is that it leaves more double hitting numbers, while the advantage is that it gives more return hits after Royset's single hits and that it offers more opportunities to make the point. Since Tissona's board is strong some of the power of Royset's double hits is mitigated, so I'd play B/21 22/16 as well.

Move number 6: Jon Royset to play 62

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O1O ' '2X '2X2X2X ' '1O|
|   |
|      |  62  |
|4X ' '1X4O '|   |5O '1X ' '1X|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 152
Position ID: 2GbwCCLg8+AFIA Match ID: cAkrAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 24/22 14/8

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/22 14/8 -0.256
  44.3% 9.4% 0.3% - 55.7% 17.6% 0.4%  
  2 2 14/6 -0.357 ( -0.101)
  40.7% 9.1% 0.2% - 59.3% 16.6% 0.4%  
  3 2 14/8 6/4* -0.463 ( -0.206)
  39.2% 9.6% 0.4% - 60.8% 19.9% 0.8%  
  4 2 14/8 13/11 -0.605 ( -0.349)
  35.5% 7.9% 0.2% - 64.5% 20.4% 0.7%  
  5 0 24/16 -0.784 ( -0.527)
  33.7% 6.2% 0.2% - 66.3% 26.0% 0.8%  

Move number 7: Moshe Tissona to play 44

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|4O ' ' '2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|   |
|  44  |      |
|4X ' '1X5O '|   |5O '1X ' '1X|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 159, Jon Royset 144
Position ID: 4PPBAwjYZvAIIg Match ID: MAEyAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 24/16 13/9(2)

 

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/16 13/9(2) +0.643
  65.7% 17.2% 0.3% - 34.3% 6.2% 0.1%  
  2 2 13/9(4) +0.521 ( -0.123)
  61.4% 22.8% 0.7% - 38.6% 8.4% 0.3%  
  3 2 13/5 13/9(2) +0.396 ( -0.247)
  58.9% 23.2% 1.0% - 41.1% 11.3% 0.6%  
  4 2 24/20 13/9(3) +0.369 ( -0.274)
  58.7% 18.8% 0.6% - 41.3% 10.0% 0.4%  
  5 2 24/16 13/5 +0.357 ( -0.287)
  58.5% 17.2% 0.4% - 41.5% 7.4% 0.2%  

Move number 8: Jon Royset to play 41

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|   |
|      |  41  |
|2X ' '2X5O '|   |5O '1X ' ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 143, Jon Royset 144
Position ID: 2GbDGATg88EDCA Match ID: cAkmAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4*/3

Alert: bad move ( -0.088)

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 8/3 -0.733
  32.4% 6.1% 0.1% - 67.6% 20.1% 0.4%  
2 2 8/4*/3 -0.822 ( -0.088)
  31.7% 6.9% 0.2% - 68.3% 23.7% 0.7%  
  3 2 6/1 -0.899 ( -0.165)
  30.3% 5.4% 0.1% - 69.7% 22.5% 0.4%  
  4 2 8/7 8/4* -0.933 ( -0.200)
  30.6% 7.4% 0.2% - 69.4% 26.8% 1.3%  
  5 2 8/7 6/2 -1.000 ( -0.267)
  28.9% 5.9% 0.1% - 71.1% 26.6% 0.8%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: No need for panic. Royset is still in the race, and Tissona does not have strong threats at the moment with his stripped prime. What Royset should avoid is getting a second checker hit so 8/3 without hitting is much better than 8/4*/3.

Move number 9: Moshe Tissona doubles to 2

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|1 |
| [2]  |      |
|2X ' '2X4O '|   |5O ' '1O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 147, Jon Royset 139
Position ID: xOfBAwjYZsMYQA Match ID: MBkgAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset accepts

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.539 (Money: +0.539)
  68.3% 23.7% 0.7% - 31.7% 6.9% 0.2%
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.774 
2.Double, pass +1.000 (+0.226)
3.No double +0.684 (-0.090)
Proper cube action: Double, take

 


Move number 10: Moshe Tissona to play 54

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|4O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|1 |
|  54  |      |
|2X ' '2X4O '|   |5O ' '1O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 147, Jon Royset 139
Position ID: xOfBAwjYZsMYQA Match ID: EYEyAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves bar/16

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/16 +0.269
 
66.0% 13.3% 0.3% - 34.0% 4.8% 0.2% +0.403 +0.244
0.3% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.007 0.012
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  2 R bar/21 8/3* +0.258 ( -0.010)
 
63.9% 23.4% 0.8% - 36.1% 9.2% 0.5% +0.418 +0.234
0.3% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.008 0.012
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  3 2 bar/21 16/11 +0.266 ( -0.003)
  65.6% 17.2% 0.4% - 34.4% 8.3% 0.2%  
  4 2 bar/21 13/8 +0.220 ( -0.048)
  62.8% 19.5% 0.5% - 37.2% 8.4% 0.3%  
  5 2 bar/20 13/9 +0.213 ( -0.055)
  62.9% 17.7% 0.4% - 37.1% 7.6% 0.2%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: I'd also play B/16, but B/21 8/3* is quite strong too.

Bots: Snowie 4 prefers b/21 8/3* and thinks Royset's choice of b/16 was a 0.020 error, whereas GNU preferred b/16 declaring Snowie's choice to be a -0.039 error.

Move number 11: Jon Royset to play 62

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|4O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|   |
|      |  62  |
|2X ' '3X4O '|   |5O ' '1O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 138, Jon Royset 139
Position ID: 2GbDOADE58EDCA Match ID: UQkrAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 6/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/7 6/4 -0.334
  32.7% 6.8% 0.1% - 67.3% 18.3% 0.4%  
  2 2 13/5 -0.356 ( -0.021)
  31.9% 6.2% 0.1% - 68.1% 17.7% 0.4%  
  3 2 13/7 8/6 -0.375 ( -0.041)
  31.4% 5.6% 0.1% - 68.6% 17.9% 0.4%  
  4 2 13/7 3/1 -0.407 ( -0.073)
  30.8% 5.5% 0.1% - 69.2% 19.6% 0.4%  
  5 2 8/2 6/4 -0.415 ( -0.080)
  31.1% 7.1% 0.2% - 68.9% 22.8% 0.5%  

Move number 12: Moshe Tissona to play 61

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|   |
|  61  |      |
|2X ' '3X4O1O|   |4O '1O1O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 138, Jon Royset 131
Position ID: lNeDAwjYZsM4AA Match ID: EQEnAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 16/9

# Ply Move Equity
  1 R 16/15 13/7 +0.315
 
68.5% 16.9% 0.9% - 31.5% 9.4% 0.5% +0.441 +0.315
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.006 0.009
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  2 R 13/7 8/7 +0.314 ( -0.001)
 
68.1% 16.2% 0.5% - 31.9% 7.4% 0.2% +0.446 +0.314
0.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.006 0.008
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
3 R 16/9 +0.268 ( -0.047)
 
66.6% 11.7% 0.3% - 33.4% 5.0% 0.2% +0.397 +0.268
0.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.006
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  4 R 9/3* 4/3 +0.257 ( -0.058)
 
65.0% 19.1% 0.4% - 35.0% 9.1% 0.4% +0.395 +0.257
0.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.008
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  5 R 16/15 9/3* +0.251 ( -0.064)
 
65.4% 18.4% 0.4% - 34.6% 10.3% 0.5% +0.382 +0.251
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.005 0.009
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1175372288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: Currently Royset is vulnerable with a large number of blots on his side of the board. These will be turned into points and strengths if Tissona leaves him alone. Tissona should either attack or make an aggressive effort to build his prime and squash all resistance now. Between the two different approaches, priming is a bit more attractive since Tissona can make a five-point prime now with a lot of covers, whereas there are only 10 attackers in the zone with a three-point board.

Move number 13: Jon Royset to play 21

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O ' '3X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|   |
|      |  21  |
|2X ' '2X4O1O|   |4O '1O1O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 131, Jon Royset 131
Position ID: 2GaHMQCU14MDCA Match ID: UQklAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/5 6/5

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 8/7 6/4 -0.356
  31.1% 5.2% 0.1% - 68.9% 14.8% 0.3%  
2 2 7/5 6/5 -0.365 ( -0.010)
  30.9% 5.6% 0.1% - 69.1% 15.8% 0.3%  
  3 2 6/5 6/4 -0.386 ( -0.030)
  30.6% 5.8% 0.1% - 69.4% 17.2% 0.4%  
  4 2 6/3 -0.411 ( -0.056)
  29.8% 5.3% 0.1% - 70.2% 17.2% 0.3%  
  5 2 6/4 3/2 -0.415 ( -0.059)
  29.7% 5.2% 0.1% - 70.3% 17.3% 0.3%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: I'd play 8/7 6/4 to have as many blots as possible covered before the onslaught. Building the 5-point is close and is correct if Royset figures that there is some chance that Tissona will again delay taking decisive action.

Move number 14: Moshe Tissona to play 42

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O ' '3X2X '2X2X2X1O ' '|
|   |
|  42  |      |
|2X ' '2X4O '|   |3O2O1O1O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 131, Jon Royset 128
Position ID: 1M6DAwjYZocxAA Match ID: EQEqAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 9/3*

# Ply Move Equity
  1 R 13/11 13/9 +0.263
 
66.4% 9.6% 0.2% - 33.6% 3.9% 0.1% +0.383 +0.263
0.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.006 0.008
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174460288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  2 R 16/10 +0.238 ( -0.024)
 
66.5% 10.1% 0.4% - 33.5% 6.0% 0.3% +0.370 +0.238
0.3% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.007 0.011
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174460288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
3 R 9/3* +0.222 ( -0.040)
 
65.4% 16.3% 0.4% - 34.6% 10.3% 0.3% +0.363 +0.222
0.3% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.007 0.011
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1174460288  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  4 2 13/11 9/5 +0.222 ( -0.040)
  64.3% 15.4% 0.4% - 35.7% 7.9% 0.3%  
  5 2 13/7 +0.216 ( -0.047)
  65.4% 14.7% 0.4% - 34.6% 10.2% 0.4%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: I agree with Tissona's play and do not understand GNU's evaluation here. Royset is still vulnerable, and there is a lot of wood in the zone, so it looks clear to attack.

Move number 15: Jon Royset to play 21

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1X ' '|
|   |
|      |  21  |
|2X ' '2X4O '|1 |3O2O1O1O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 125, Jon Royset 131
Position ID: tM2GMQDUzoMDQA Match ID: UQklAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves bar/23 4/3

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/23 4/3 -0.268
 
33.4% 6.4% 0.2% - 66.6% 13.7% 0.2% -0.403 -0.243
0.3% 0.2% 0.0% - 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.007 0.010
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  2 R bar/22* -0.274 ( -0.007)
 
34.8% 11.0% 0.5% - 65.2% 23.3% 1.2% -0.426 -0.250
0.3% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.008 0.013
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  3 R bar/24 6/4 -0.299 ( -0.031)
 
32.1% 6.0% 0.2% - 67.9% 12.2% 0.3% -0.419 -0.274
0.3% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.007 0.010
 
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1177853568  
  Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful 33% speed  
  4 2 bar/23 8/7 -0.336 ( -0.068)
  32.3% 8.0% 0.2% - 67.7% 18.7% 0.4%  
  5 2 bar/24 8/6 -0.337 ( -0.070)
  31.2% 7.9% 0.2% - 68.8% 16.1% 0.4%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: An exceedingly tough decision. It would have been clear to hit if Royset had covered one of his blots. As it stands, Royset has three plays: B/24 6/4, B/23 4/3 and B/22*. If Royset does not hit, his play seems a bit stronger than B/24 6/4 since it does not leave any blots in the home board and more importantly, for the coverage of White's stripped 8-point, making it more difficult to cover the blot on the three. Also, after the 3-point has been made, being on the 23 has the advantage of making it more difficult for Royset to build his bar-point. It is a bit more prone to attack than B/24 6/4 and therefore loses more gammons.

B/22* looks very wild, but increases Royset's wins, making it very close. I guess I'd have played Royset's move.

It is an interesting position, and the right play depends a lot on the score: B/22* at DMP and Gammon-Go, B/23 4/3 for money, and B/24 6/4 at Gammon-Save.

Move number 16: Moshe Tissona to play 52

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|3O ' '2X2X '2X2X2X1X1O '|
|   |
|  52  |      |
|2X ' '2X4O '|   |3O2O '2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 125, Jon Royset 128
Position ID: zM6DAxC0zYYxAA Match ID: EYEqAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 8/6 8/3

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/6 8/3 +0.251
  65.1% 14.9% 0.3% - 34.9% 6.6% 0.3%  
  2 2 13/11 13/8 +0.112 ( -0.139)
  61.5% 12.1% 0.2% - 38.5% 8.6% 0.3%  
  3 2 9/4 3/1 +0.060 ( -0.190)
  59.1% 12.1% 0.2% - 40.9% 8.1% 0.2%  
  4 2 13/6 +0.055 ( -0.196)
  59.5% 13.0% 0.2% - 40.5% 10.1% 0.4%  
  5 2 16/11 3/1 +0.021 ( -0.230)
  59.1% 10.2% 0.2% - 40.9% 10.2% 0.2%  

Move number 17: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|3O ' '2X ' '3X2X2X2X1O '|
|   |
|      |  61  |
|2X ' '2X4O '|   |3O2O '2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 118, Jon Royset 128
Position ID: bDuGMQDMzoMDEA Match ID: UQknAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/7 8/7

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/7 8/7 -0.236
  35.3% 6.6% 0.2% - 64.7% 14.3% 0.3%  
  2 2 13/6 -0.303 ( -0.068)
  33.3% 8.4% 0.3% - 66.7% 18.4% 0.3%  
  3 2 13/7 6/5 -0.322 ( -0.086)
  33.1% 8.5% 0.3% - 66.9% 20.0% 0.4%  
  4 2 8/7 8/2 -0.364 ( -0.129)
  32.2% 9.2% 0.3% - 67.8% 22.9% 0.6%  
  5 2 8/2 6/5 -0.375 ( -0.139)
  31.9% 8.6% 0.3% - 68.1% 22.5% 0.4%  

Move number 18: Moshe Tissona to play 63

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O ' '2X ' '3X2X2X2X1O '|
|   |
|  63  |      |
|2X ' '2X3O2O|   |3O2O '2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 118, Jon Royset 121
Position ID: zG4HAxBsO4YxAA Match ID: EQEvAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 16/13 16/10

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 16/13 16/10 +0.285
  67.6% 8.7% 0.2% - 32.4% 2.6% 0.1%  
  2 2 9/6 9/3 +0.229 ( -0.056)
  64.1% 14.3% 0.2% - 35.9% 5.8% 0.2%  
  3 2 13/4 +0.086 ( -0.199)
  59.3% 13.1% 0.4% - 40.7% 7.1% 0.2%  
  4 2 13/10 13/7 -0.024 ( -0.309)
  56.2% 11.0% 0.2% - 43.8% 7.9% 0.3%  
  5 0 9/3 6/3 +0.032 ( -0.253)
  58.6% 9.6% 0.1% - 41.4% 7.7% 0.1%  

Move number 19: Jon Royset to play 63

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O '1X2X ' '3X2X2X2X1O '|
|   |
|      |  63  |
|3X ' ' '3O2O|   |3O2O '2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 109, Jon Royset 121
Position ID: bDsWBwDMbgcDEA Match ID: UQkvAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 23/14

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 23/14 -0.348
  30.1% 0.8% 0.0% - 69.9% 6.9% 0.1%  
  2 2 13/10 13/7 -0.440 ( -0.092)
  25.4% 1.9% 0.0% - 74.6% 6.0% 0.1%  
  3 2 8/5 8/2 -0.457 ( -0.109)
  26.5% 3.0% 0.1% - 73.5% 11.7% 0.2%  
  4 2 8/2 7/4 -0.479 ( -0.131)
  26.2% 4.6% 0.1% - 73.8% 15.0% 0.4%  
  5 2 8/2 6/3 -0.486 ( -0.138)
  26.0% 4.2% 0.1% - 74.0% 14.7% 0.3%  

Move number 20: Moshe Tissona to play 63

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O1O1X2X ' '3X2X2X2X ' '|
|   |
|  63  |      |
|3X ' ' '3O2O|   |3O2O '2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 109, Jon Royset 112
Position ID: zG4HCwBsOxYHAA Match ID: EQEvAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/4

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 13/7 9/6 +0.219
  66.8% 0.3% 0.0% - 33.2% 0.1% 0.0%  
2 2 13/4 +0.217 ( -0.001)
  66.8% 0.4% 0.0% - 33.2% 0.1% 0.0%  
  3 2 13/7 10/7 +0.216 ( -0.002)
  66.7% 0.3% 0.0% - 33.3% 0.1% 0.0%  
  4 2 10/4 9/6 +0.213 ( -0.005)
  66.6% 0.4% 0.0% - 33.4% 0.1% 0.0%  
  5 2 13/7 5/2 +0.202 ( -0.017)
  66.2% 0.2% 0.0% - 33.8% 0.1% 0.0%  

Move number 21: Jon Royset to play 32

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O1O1X2X ' '3X2X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|      |  32  |
|2X ' ' '3O2O|   |3O2O '2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 100, Jon Royset 112
Position ID: 7HYsBgDMbgcLAA Match ID: UYkpAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 14/11 8/6

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 14/11 8/6 -0.296
  29.8% 0.1% 0.0% - 70.2% 0.1% 0.0%  
  2 2 14/11 7/5 -0.307 ( -0.011)
  29.4% 0.1% 0.0% - 70.6% 0.1% 0.0%  
  3 2 14/11 6/4 -0.309 ( -0.013)
  29.3% 0.1% 0.0% - 70.7% 0.1% 0.0%  
  4 2 14/9 -0.312 ( -0.016)
  29.1% 0.1% 0.0% - 70.9% 0.1% 0.0%  
  5 2 14/11 3/1 -0.319 ( -0.023)
  28.9% 0.1% 0.0% - 71.1% 0.1% 0.0%  

Move number 22: Moshe Tissona to play 62

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|2O '1X2X ' '3X2X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|  62  |      |
|2X1O ' '2O2O|   |4O2O '2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 100, Jon Royset 107
Position ID: zN5GBgDsdiwGAA Match ID: EQErAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 13/11 13/7

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/11 13/7 +0.324
  71.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 28.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 10/4 9/7 +0.324 ( +0.000)
  71.3% 0.1% 0.0% - 28.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 10/4 3/1 +0.321 ( -0.004)
  71.2% 0.1% 0.0% - 28.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 10/2 +0.320 ( -0.005)
  71.1% 0.1% 0.0% - 28.9% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 9/1 +0.319 ( -0.005)
  71.1% 0.1% 0.0% - 28.9% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 23: Jon Royset to play 65

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|2O1X1X2X '1X3X2X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|      |  65  |
| '1O ' '2O2O|   |4O2O '2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 92, Jon Royset 107
Position ID: 7HZZAQDM3kYGAA Match ID: UQk3AyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/8 11/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/8 11/5 -0.232
  32.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.3% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 13/2 -0.234 ( -0.002)
  32.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 11/5 7/2 -0.234 ( -0.002)
  32.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 13/8 13/7 -0.235 ( -0.003)
  32.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 13/7 11/6 -0.239 ( -0.007)
  32.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 67.6% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 24: Moshe Tissona to play 63

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|1O1X1X2X '1X3X2X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|  63  |      |
| ' ' ' '3O2O|   |4O3O '2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 92, Jon Royset 96
Position ID: zL0dBADsdlkBAA Match ID: EQEvAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 11/5 9/6

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 11/5 9/6 +0.286
  69.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 10/4 9/6 +0.282 ( -0.004)
  69.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 30.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 11/5 7/4 +0.277 ( -0.009)
  69.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 30.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 9/6 9/3 +0.274 ( -0.012)
  69.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 30.9% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 10/4 7/4 +0.273 ( -0.013)
  69.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 30.9% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 25: Jon Royset to play 22

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|1O '1X1X '1X4X3X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|      |  22  |
| ' ' ' '3O2O|   |4O3O '2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 83, Jon Royset 96
Position ID: 7O6lAADMvR0EAA Match ID: UQkpAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/4 8/6 7/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/4 8/6 7/5 -0.286
  30.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 13/11 8/4 7/5 -0.287 ( -0.002)
  30.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 13/11 8/4 8/6 -0.288 ( -0.002)
  30.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 8/6(2) 7/5(2) -0.288 ( -0.003)
  30.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 13/11 8/6(2) 7/5 -0.288 ( -0.003)
  30.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 69.6% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 26: Moshe Tissona to play 32

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
|1O '1X1X '1X4X3X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|  32  |      |
| ' ' ' '1O1O|   |5O4O1O2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 83, Jon Royset 88
Position ID: rPcVBADs7qUAAA Match ID: EYEpAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 9/6 7/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 9/6 7/5 +0.145
  63.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 10/8 9/6 +0.137 ( -0.008)
  63.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 10/5 +0.135 ( -0.010)
  63.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 10/8 7/4 +0.134 ( -0.012)
  63.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 9/4 +0.134 ( -0.012)
  63.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 36.8% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 27: Jon Royset to play 65

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|1O '1X ' ' '5X4X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|      |  65  |
| ' ' ' '1O1O|   |5O4O1O2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 78, Jon Royset 88
Position ID: 7N6HAACs9xUEAA Match ID: UQk3AyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 13/2

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 13/2 -0.030
  41.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.3% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 13/8 7/1 -0.037 ( -0.008)
  41.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 8/2 7/2 -0.046 ( -0.017)
  41.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 13/7 6/1 -0.047 ( -0.017)
  40.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.2% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 13/7 8/3 -0.048 ( -0.019)
  40.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 59.1% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 28: Moshe Tissona to play 32

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' '1X ' ' '5X4X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|  32  |      |
| ' ' ' '1O1O|   |5O4O1O2O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 78, Jon Royset 77
Position ID: Wu8rAADs3ocAAA Match ID: EYEpAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 10/5

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 10/5 -0.147
  51.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 10/7 6/4 -0.157 ( -0.010)
  50.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 10/7 3/1 -0.157 ( -0.010)
  50.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 10/7 4/2 -0.159 ( -0.012)
  50.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 10/8 5/2 -0.160 ( -0.014)
  50.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.7% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 29: Jon Royset to play 32

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '5X5X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|      |  32  |
| ' ' ' '1O1O|   |5O4O1O2O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 73, Jon Royset 77
Position ID: 7L4PAABa7ysAAA Match ID: UYkpAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 7/4 6/4

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 8/6 7/4 -0.020
  42.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 57.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 7/4 3/1 -0.030 ( -0.010)
  41.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
3 2 7/4 6/4 -0.030 ( -0.010)
  41.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 8/5 6/4 -0.033 ( -0.013)
  41.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.2% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 8/5 7/5 -0.035 ( -0.015)
  41.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 58.3% 0.0% 0.0%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: I'd just play 8/6 7/4 here. That leaves two checkers on the 4, which should be enough putting a third on the 4 is not worth enough to compensate for the wasted crossover. In contrast, with a 21 I'd play 7/4 rather 8/6 7/6. One checker on the 4 is not enough.

Move number 30: Moshe Tissona to play 33

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '5X5X3X2X ' '|
|   |
|  33  |      |
| ' ' ' '1O '|   |4O4O3O2O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 73, Jon Royset 72
Position ID: 2r0nAADsvg8AAA Match ID: EYEtAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/off 3/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 3/off(2) +0.261
  68.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 31.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 6/off 5/2 3/off +0.256 ( -0.005)
  68.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 32.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/2 4/1 3/off(2) +0.244 ( -0.017)
  67.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 32.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/off 4/1 3/off +0.243 ( -0.019)
  67.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 32.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 5/2(2) 3/off(2) +0.243 ( -0.019)
  67.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 32.5% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 31: Jon Royset to play 62

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '4X5X3X ' ' '|
|   |
|      |  62  |
| ' ' ' '1O '|   |4O4O3O2O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 61, Jon Royset 72
Position ID: uO8BAEC79wQAAA Match ID: UQkrAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 8/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 8/off -0.277
  31.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 68.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 8/2 3/1 -0.317 ( -0.040)
  29.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 70.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 8/2 6/4 -0.318 ( -0.041)
  29.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 70.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 8/2 5/3 -0.332 ( -0.054)
  28.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.2% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 8/2 4/2 -0.347 ( -0.069)
  28.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.8% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 32: Moshe Tissona to play 31

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '4X5X3X ' ' '|
|   |
|  31  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |4O4O3O2O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 61, Jon Royset 64
Position ID: 2r0HAADc9wAAAA Match ID: EYElAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/3 5/4

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 4/off +0.042
  58.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 5/2 4/3 +0.035 ( -0.007)
  58.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/4 5/2 +0.027 ( -0.014)
  58.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
4 2 6/3 5/4 +0.026 ( -0.016)
  58.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 5/1 +0.023 ( -0.019)
  58.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 41.9% 0.0% 0.0%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: Better is 4/off. Even if there were only two checkers on the 4-point, it would probably still be correct to just take a checker off.

Move number 33: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '3X4X4X1X ' '|
|   |
|      |  61  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |4O4O3O2O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 57, Jon Royset 64
Position ID: 9N4BAEC79wAAAA Match ID: UQknAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/off 2/1

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 6/off 5/4 -0.131
  37.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 62.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
2 2 6/off 2/1 -0.133 ( -0.002)
  37.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 62.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 6/off 3/2 -0.134 ( -0.003)
  37.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 62.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/off 4/3 -0.143 ( -0.012)
  37.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 63.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 6/5 6/off -0.146 ( -0.015)
  36.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 63.2% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 34: Moshe Tissona to play 11

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '3X4X4X1X ' '|
|   |
|  11  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |3O4O3O2O '1O|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 57, Jon Royset 57
Position ID: 2b0DAAC9dwAAAA Match ID: EYEkAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 4/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 4/off -0.124
  51.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 48.3% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 5/4 3/off -0.150 ( -0.026)
  50.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/2 4/3 -0.150 ( -0.026)
  50.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/5 3/off -0.161 ( -0.036)
  50.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 49.9% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 5/1 -0.162 ( -0.037)
  50.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 50.0% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 35: Jon Royset to play 21

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '3X4X3X1X ' '|
|   |
|      |  21  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |3O4O3O2O '1O|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 53, Jon Royset 57
Position ID: dO8AAJDdOwAAAA Match ID: UQklAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 4/2 1/off

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.315)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 4/2 1/off -0.197
  34.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 65.3% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 3/off -0.203 ( -0.005)
  34.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 65.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/3 1/off -0.213 ( -0.015)
  34.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/4 1/off -0.217 ( -0.019)
  33.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.2% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 5/2 -0.231 ( -0.034)
  33.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 66.8% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 36: Moshe Tissona to play 53

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '3X4X3X1X ' '|
|   |
|  53  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |3O4O2O2O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 53, Jon Royset 54
Position ID: 2t4BAIDuHQAAAA Match ID: EYEuAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 5/off 3/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 5/off 3/off +0.214
  66.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 33.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 5/2 5/off +0.195 ( -0.019)
  65.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 34.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/off 4/1 +0.190 ( -0.024)
  65.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 34.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/3 5/off +0.183 ( -0.031)
  65.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 35.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 6/1 3/off +0.165 ( -0.049)
  64.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 35.8% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 37: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '3X3X3X ' ' '|
|   |
|      |  61  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |3O4O2O2O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 45, Jon Royset 54
Position ID: uDsAAGh7BwAAAA Match ID: UQknAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/off 5/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 5/4 -0.328
  29.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 6/off 3/2 -0.345 ( -0.017)
  28.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 6/off 2/1 -0.349 ( -0.021)
  28.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 71.9% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/5 6/off -0.362 ( -0.033)
  27.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 72.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 6/off 4/3 -0.368 ( -0.040)
  27.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 72.7% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 38: Moshe Tissona to play 32

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '3X3X3X ' ' '|
|   |
|  32  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |2O3O3O2O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 45, Jon Royset 47
Position ID: 2t0AAIC7AwAAAA Match ID: EYEpAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/3 4/2

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 5/off +0.126
  62.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 37.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
2 2 6/3 4/2 +0.104 ( -0.023)
  61.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 38.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/3 4/1 +0.095 ( -0.031)
  61.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 38.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/3 5/3 +0.093 ( -0.033)
  61.1% 0.0% 0.0% - 38.9% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 5/3 5/2 +0.090 ( -0.037)
  60.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 39.1% 0.0% 0.0%  

Annotation
Casper van der Tak: Better is simply 5/off. In this type of position with checkers on the 6, 5 and 4 points it is almost always correct to take checkers off when possible and without leaving a gap.

Move number 39: Jon Royset to play 21

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '2X3X2X1X1X '|
|   |
|      |  21  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |2O3O3O2O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 40, Jon Royset 47
Position ID: ajcAAGh3AwAAAA Match ID: UQklAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 3/off

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.329)

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 3/off -0.437
  24.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 75.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 5/4 2/off -0.463 ( -0.025)
  23.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 76.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 4/3 2/off -0.466 ( -0.028)
  23.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 77.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/5 2/off -0.466 ( -0.029)
  23.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 77.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 4/1 -0.496 ( -0.059)
  21.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 78.3% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 40: Moshe Tissona to play 65

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '2X3X2X1X1X '|
|   |
|  65  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |2O3O3O1O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 40, Jon Royset 44
Position ID: 6m4AAFC7AQAAAA Match ID: EQE3AyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/off 5/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 5/off +0.639
  84.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 6/1 6/off +0.561 ( -0.078)
  81.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 18.8% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 41: Jon Royset to play 61

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X2X1X1X '|
|   |
|      |  61  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |2O3O3O1O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 29, Jon Royset 44
Position ID: agsAAOpuAAAAAA Match ID: UQknAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/off 4/3

# Ply Move Equity
  1 2 6/off 5/4 -0.746
  11.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
2 2 6/off 4/3 -0.748 ( -0.002)
  10.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 6/off 2/1 -0.755 ( -0.009)
  10.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.3% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/5 6/off -0.759 ( -0.013)
  10.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 89.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 6/off 3/2 -0.776 ( -0.030)
  9.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 90.2% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 42: Moshe Tissona to play 31

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X2X1X1X '|
|   |
|  31  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |1O3O2O2O1O '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 29, Jon Royset 37
Position ID: 2i4AAKgtAAAAAA Match ID: EYElAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 4/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 4/off +0.563
  81.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 18.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 3/off 2/1 +0.544 ( -0.019)
  80.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 19.5% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 5/4 3/off +0.541 ( -0.022)
  80.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 19.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 5/1 +0.518 ( -0.045)
  79.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 20.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 6/5 3/off +0.503 ( -0.060)
  78.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 21.2% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 43: Jon Royset to play 62

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X1X1X1X '|
|   |
|      |  62  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   |1O3O2O2O1O '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 25, Jon Royset 37
Position ID: qgUAAG0XAAAAAA Match ID: UQkrAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 6/off 2/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 6/off 2/off -0.623
  17.2% 0.0% 0.0% - 82.8% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 6/off 3/1 -0.662 ( -0.039)
  15.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 84.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 6/off 5/3 -0.713 ( -0.090)
  13.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 6/off 4/2 -0.720 ( -0.097)
  12.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.7% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 6/4 5/off -0.727 ( -0.104)
  12.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 87.7% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 44: Moshe Tissona to play 44

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X1X1X1X '|
|   |
|  44  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   | '3O2O2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 25, Jon Royset 29
Position ID: bAcAAKoFAAAAAA Match ID: EQEyAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 6/2 5/1(2) 4/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 6/2 5/1(2) 4/off +0.763
  89.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 45: Jon Royset to play 65

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X2X|
|   |
|      |  65  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   | '3O2O2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 9, Jon Royset 29
Position ID: WwAAANsBAAAAAA Match ID: UQk3AyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 5/off(2)

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 5/off(2) -0.765
  11.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 88.4% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 46: Moshe Tissona to play 32

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X2X|
|   |
|  32  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   | '1O2O2O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 9, Jon Royset 19
Position ID: bAEAwBYAAAAAAA Match ID: EYEpAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 3/off 2/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 3/off 2/off +0.725
  86.4% 0.0% 0.0% - 13.6% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 3/1 2/off +0.716 ( -0.009)
  85.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 14.1% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 47: Jon Royset to play 11

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X|
|   |
|      |  11  |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   | '1O2O2O ' '|
+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 4, Jon Royset 19
Position ID: CwAAwBYAAAAAAA Match ID: UYkkAyAAAAAA

• Jon Royset moves 5/4 3/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 5/4 3/off -0.861
  6.9% 0.0% 0.0% - 93.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
  2 2 4/off -0.907 ( -0.046)
  4.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  3 2 3/off 3/2 -0.907 ( -0.046)
  4.6% 0.0% 0.0% - 95.4% 0.0% 0.0%  
  4 2 5/2 4/3 -1.000 ( -0.139)
  0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  5 2 4/2(2) -1.000 ( -0.139)
  0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%  

Move number 48: Moshe Tissona to play 62

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X2X|
|   |
|  62  |      |
| ' ' ' ' ' '|   | ' '3O1O ' '|
+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Moshe Tissona 4, Jon Royset 15
Position ID: dAAAYAEAAAAAAA Match ID: EQErAyAAAAAA

• Moshe Tissona moves 2/off 1/off

# Ply Move Equity
1 0 2/off 1/off +0.833
  91.7% 0.0% 0.0% - 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%  

Moshe Tissona wins 2 points

 

Game statistics for game 3
PlayerMoshe TissonaJon Royset
Checker play statistics
Total moves 24 23
Unforced moves 22 22
Moves marked very good 0 0
Moves marked good 0 0
Moves marked interesting 0 0
Moves unmarked 20 22
Moves marked doubtful 4 0
Moves marked bad 0 1
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error rate (total) -0.196 ( -1.054%) -0.112 ( -0.441%)
Error rate (pr. move) -0.009 ( -0.048% ) -0.005 ( -0.020%)
Chequer play rating Advanced Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 0 0
Rolls marked lucky 0 0
Rolls unmarked 24 21
Rolls marked unlucky 0 2
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck rate (total) -0.382 ( -4.546%) -1.979 (-11.600%)
Luck rate (pr. move) -0.016 ( -0.189%) -0.086 ( -0.504%)
Luck rating None Go to bed
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 4 24
Close or actual cube decisions 4 1
Doubles 1 0
Takes 0 1
Passes 0 0
Missed doubles around DP 0 0
Missed doubles around TG 0 0
Wrong doubles around DP 0 0
Wrong doubles around TG 0 0
Wrong takes 0 0
Wrong passes 0 0
Error rate (total) 0 0
Error rate (per cube decision) 0 0
Cube decision rating Supernatural Supernatural
Overall rating
Error rate (total) -0.196 ( -1.054%) -0.112 ( -0.441%)
Error rate (per decision) -0.008 ( -0.041% ) -0.005 ( -0.019%)
Equivalent Snowie error rate -4.2 -2.4
Overall rating Expert World class

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