Re: Interesting question/experiment about value of cube ownership

[MK]

On 3/19/2024 3:54 AM, Ian Shaw wrote:

> MK "Those numbers are based on how the bot would play against itself.
> If you accept the bot's decisions as best/perfect and if you try to
> play just like bot, assuming that your opponent will also try to play
> just like the bot, of course you wouldn't/shouldn't double."

> Agreed. Against a worse player, you can take with fewer winning chances.
> If your opponent will give up enough equity in errors to overcome the
> error of the bad take (and your own subsequent errors), then you should
> still come out ahead.

I hope you are realizing that you are agreeing with the bot, not with me.
What you quoted from me above was in response to your previously saying:

   "I wouldn’t double.  As shown by the rollouts, I'd be giving
   "up 0.36 points per game, on average. Even if I knew you would
   "roll 66, I would still take, because the equity of -0.276 * 2
   "is still better than giving up a whole 1.000 point.

Would you drop if you knew that the mutant would roll 77? You wouldn't.
(Just exaggerating to make a point, while reminiscing how Jellyfish was
not only rolling 77's but shamelessly playing them to escape 6-primes:)

Once the mutant conditionally pre-doubles, (i.e. if rules allow it, in
case it wins the opening roll), you will become hostage to its strategy,
or in better sounding words, you will be dancing to its tune... ;)

Reaching a D/P later won't help you either because the mutant will not
drop and will force you to keep playing until the last roll, perhaps
trading the cube more times back and forth.

Letting the bot play for both side after the "opening double" actually
defeats the purpose of the experiment but since there is no "separately
existing, fully functional mutant bot (that would play like me;)" to
make it play against GnuBG 2-ply, this is the only way we can do it and
it's better than nothing.

So, this way the really "semi-mutant" play will lose but it still will
not lose more than what would be expected from the cube error rate that
the mutant incurs from this "opening double". This alone is enough to
prove that the currently dogmatized "cube skill theory" is a jarful of
cow chip cookies...

MK