Linux on desktop PCs
More balls through
Windows
Apr 15th 2004 | SAN FRANCISCO
From The Economist print
edition
Is Microsoft finally about to
face real competition in desktop-computer software?
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FOR years, hope has
ebbed and flowed among many in the computer business that Linux, a freely
available computer operating system which uses a penguin as its symbol, would
become a viable alternative to Microsoft's Windows, the near universal standard
for the world's personal computers. The industryexcluding Microsoft and its
founder Bill Gates, of courseis currently riding another wave of hope. Will
disappointment follow?
Within the past month,
some of the world's most powerful technology firms have pledged considerable
support for Linux on the desktop. Hewlett-Packard (HP),
which runs neck-and-neck with Dell as the largest seller of PCs in the world, said it will begin shipping some machines that
run on Novell's flavour of the free operating system, called SuSE Linux. And Sun Microsystems, an
arch-rival of Microsoft, announcedeven as it was preparing to bury the hatchet
with Microsoft officiallythat it had persuaded Wal-Mart, the world's biggest
retailer, to sell cheap PCs using Linux and Sun's
StarOffice suite of application programs, instead of the ubiquitous Microsoft
Office. This follows a deal that Sun struck last autumn with several Chinese
ministries to ship up to 1m PCs with Sun's Linux package to
China this year, rising to tens of millions in future years, according to
Jonathan Schwartz, Sun's chief operating
officer.
Is this the beginning of
the end for Microsoft's virtual monopoly on the desktop? Certainly not right
away, says Al Gillen, an analyst at IDC, a technology
consultancy. Today, almost 94% of all PCs in the world run
on Windows, while slightly more than 3%mostly in creative industries and
universitiesuse Apple's Macintosh system. Fewer than 3% use Linux. By the end
of the decade, Linux's share could grow to 7-10%, reckons Mr Gillen, displacing
Macs as the main alternative. That would still fall far short of Linux's growing
popularity in the market for powerful server computers. Linux aficionados,
however, say its chances on the desktop should be much better.
They cite several
reasons why. First, the quality of Linuxwhich like other open-source software
is developed by a community of volunteers who share their work freelyhas been
rising steadily. Linux PCs are no longer just for geeks.
Second, Microsoft itself looks temporarily chastened, if not weak. A series of
worms and viruses has wrought havoc on Windows PCs.
Microsoft faced further embarrassment this week when it warned about more
security flaws in its software. Meanwhile Linux, which hackers tend not to
target, looks safe in comparison. And distrust of Microsoft as a bullying
monopolist remains high. Last month, the European Commission fined the company
497m ($612m) and ordered it to behave better.
More specifically, two
windows, so to speak, of opportunity appear to be opening. One is that the next
version of Windows, called Longhorn, has been delayed to 2006 at the earliest,
in part by Microsoft's realisation that it has to tighten up security a lot
more. So, for the next two years, companies and home users thinking about
updating their operating system might be reluctant to buy the current version,
Windows XP, knowing it will soon be overtaken. Hence they
may consider alternatives more seriously. If Linux can establish a good
reputation during this period, it might look even more attractive once Longhorn,
which will be expensive and is likely to require new hardware, is released.
Linux, after all, can be very cheap: $100 per user if bought as part of Sun's
package, for instance. It can even be downloaded for nothing from the
internet.
The other opportunity
lies in poor countries. Unlike rich countries, which have a huge installed base
of Windows computers and billions of documents in Microsoft's fiddly file
formats, most users in Asia and South America are starting with a clean slate.
For a country such as China, says Sun's Mr Schwartz, the attraction of
open-source software is obvious: it is cheaper, so it will reduce the incentive
to get pirated software (most copies of Windows in China are fake) and thus help
China improve its relations with the World Trade Organisation. Better still, it
allows China to avoid being locked into a single vendorand an American one at
that.
On the other hand,
despite improvements Linux faces real obstacles. It can still be a nightmare for
home users to install and, unless bought as part of a commercial package such as
Sun's, it does not come with a help-desk. Worse, there are still too few
applications. Fewer than 1% of all computer games, for instance, work on Linux.
Software to manage personal finances or organise digital photos is also missing.
In theory these programs could all be written but, without a huge increase in
users, code-writers will not bother.
This is why even some of
Linux's main backers have relatively modest ambitions for the operating system.
There is no real market for a consumer-grade Linux desktop, says Martin Fink,
HP's Linux boss. Rather than trying to upstage Microsoft,
HP is simply responding to its corporate customers, whose
technology bosses have been asking to try out Linux on the desktops of a few
dozen employees before committing to any big deployment. They are at the point
where they want to kick the tyres, adds Mr Fink.
Linux's main appeal, in
other words, is likely to be to companies rather than home users. And even
companies are unlikely to ditch their Windows PCs for the
sort of employees that Microsoft calls information workersthe lawyers,
consultants, accountants and so forth who use presentation applications,
spreadsheets, fancy graphics and the like. Linux is perfect, on the other hand,
for call centres, cash tellers, customer-support departments and other types of
work that require employees to use only the same one or two computer functions
(and whom their employers might actually want to discourage from goofing off
with other applications while on the job). Instead of the information worker,
says Mr Fink, he is targeting the transaction worker.
That casts a different
light on Linux's future on the PC. Companies such as HP do not see it as a way to make money, but as a way for them to
drive sales of server computers in company data-centres as part of a complete
Linux solution. And Sun, according to Pip Coburn, an analyst at UBS, a bank, probably aims to distract folks in suggesting that
Microsoftcertainly damaged by Linux in serverswill get burned at the
desktop.
So Microsoft may not
need to worry about Linux on PCs all that much. Insofar as
it can point to competition from Linux, as it has been doing with Apple, as
proof that it is not a monopoly, Linux may even help Microsoft in its legal
battles.
But the future is
uncertain, and Linux still might yet represent another kind of threat to the
company. No standard operating system has yet emerged for mobile handsets,
robots, watches, televisions, printers, car gadgets and other such devices.
Microsoft, naturally, wants to extend Windows' dominance to these as well. It is
here, rather than the desktop, that Linux could be a real threat to the mighty
company's ambitions.
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