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Poised to triple
From: |
bug-gfe |
Subject: |
Poised to triple |
Date: |
Sun, 10 Jul 2005 11:47:55 -0500 |
MergerTradera
The Definitive Resource for Relative Value & Risk Arbitrage Trading
Opportunities
New Trading Alert
SYMBOL: AFNN
EXCHANGE: OTC
SHARES O/S: 13 MM
MARKET CAP: $5.8 MM
CURRENT PRICE: $.55
PRICE TARGET: $3.30
CONGRATULATIONS to all our subscribers who purchased shares of Cable Vision
Systems Corp. (NYSE:CVC) at $25.65 on Thursday, June 2nd, as instructed.
Based on many factors including depressed valuations in the space, we
believed that an acquisition was eminent, and that CVC was the target. We
didna?Tt know that the a?oacquisitiona?? would actually come from within, as
the
companya?Ts controlling family, the Dolans, announced a $7.9 Billion
privatization tender offer for the outstanding shares on June 20th. Our
subscribers realized a 28% return in 18 days!
Opportunity Analysis:
It is indeed an unusual case when the MergerTrader recommends anything other
than Listed or NASDAQ securities that are either mispriced relative to the
terms of a recently announced transaction, or that reflect significant price
imbalances based on the anticipation of an event has not yet been announced
(as referenced by or recommendation earlier this month of Cablevision
Systems Corp), but every once in a while we come across opportunities that
we ourselves would have normally overlooked. That is the case with our
current recommendation, which happens to trade in the Over the Counter (OTC)
markets. For those of you with little or no experience in the OTC markets,
they are highly volatile and usually illiquid. While those factors would
dissuade many from participating altogether, the opportunities we highlight
are based on FACT, NOT SPECULATION. Simply put, and as always, we take
positions based on completed (or soon to be completed) transactions and make
trades based on market pricing imperfections whereby we can a?~tip the scales
in our favora?T for the possibility of a guaranteed return.
AFMN, Inc. represents such an opportunity. On May 17th, 2005, the Company
signed a definitive agreement with Medical Media Television, Inc. to be
acquired. Under the terms of agreement, AFMN shareholders of record will
receive one share of common stock in MMTV for every share of AFNN they own
at the closing date of the transaction. Typically speaking, the acquiring
Company, in this case Medical Media Television, would immediately file a
registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (known as
a Form S-4), and once the form is declared a?oeffectivea??, the two companies
will consummate the transaction. With shares of MMTV currently trading at
$1.55, shareholders of AFNN will realize a 244% gain for their shares when
the transaction is completed, based on AFNNa?Ts closing price today of $.45.
We are highlighting this opportunity now because the short attention span of
the markets has made the risk/reward scenario compelling for us again.
Shortly before and after the announcement, shares of AFNN traded from a low
of $.50 to a high of $1.25 on much higher than average volume. We,
admittedly, missed this trade the first time around. Its seems, however,
that many people who purchased in anticipation of the transaction being
completed were not willing to wait the relatively short period of time for
the S-4 to become effective (typically several months) and the shares of
AFNN have retraced back to the $.45 price level. While we would normally
engage in a typical risk arbitrage or relative value tactic of buying shares
of the target company and short selling shares of the acquiring company,
that is not possible in this scenario, as SEC and NASD rules prevent the
short sale of stocks under $5.
Given that fact, we recommend that our subscribers purchase shares of AFNN
and either take profits when the price of the shares reaches parody with
those of MMTV and wait until the transaction is completed (given the
duration of time that has past since the announcement we believe the closing
should happen within 30 to 45 days), or take profits. Because of the unusual
circumstances given this recommendation (more particularly, the OTC markets
on which these securities trade) we recommend that no subscriber allocates
more than 5% of their total risk capital to this trade, as the price
volatility inherent in this trade will be greater that our typical
recommendation. Either way, shares of AFNN do carry ten times our normal
target profit potential, and therefore represent a way for us to
significantly enhance our Alpha (risk adjusted returns) in the short term.
MergerTrader Recommends: BUY AFNN up to $1.30
------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER This research report is provided as an information service only
and the information contained in this research report is believed to be
factual. The purpose of this research report is to provide awareness of the
referenced companya?Ts public securities, its products and/or services.
MergerTrader and its affiliates, publish research reports providing
information on selected companies that it believes has investment potential.
Some companies that MergerTrader researches will not be appropriate for all
investors, particularly those companies listed on the OTC Bulletin Board and
Pink Sheet exchanges, which are generally development stage companies with
very risk profiles. The statements and opinions in this report should not be
construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
MergerTrader is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and
accepts no liability for any loss arising from an investor's reliance on or
use of this report. Each person reading this research report is urged to
conduct their own due diligence on the referenced company before they
invest. An investment in the referenced company is highly speculative and
should not be considered unless a person can afford a complete loss of
investment. MergerTrader has been compensated for the writing of this
research report, and as such, the opinions or recommendations contained
herein may constitute a conflict of interest. Subsequently, MergerTrader
reserves the right to buy or sell shares of AFNN stock in the open market.
For further details concerning risks and uncertainties, see the SEC filings
of AFNN.
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