[Bug-gnubg] Guestimated abs. rating too high ?

[Peter Orum]

Hi,

It seems to me that perhaps the estimated ratings are too high, 
perhaps by as much as 100 points. This is based on my own history 
and many matches against GGRaccoon on GamesGrid.

For example, the match attached gives me a rating of 2038, and 
GGRaccoon 2095. According to http://www.gamesgrid.com/faq-
GGrobots.html, GGRaccoon's average rating is 1935, and the highest 
it has currently been is 2072 according to its info page. It seems to me 
its rating is generally between 1850 and 1950. GGRaccoon plays with 
no lookahead. I would suggest that the Guestimated rating for the 
attached match could be 1995 for GGRaccoon. 2095 is just too high.

Similarly for myself, on FIBS and GamesGrid my highest ratings have 
been about 1930, and currently I am 1850 to 1880. I would suggest 
that for this match, 1938 is more reasonable than 2038.

I am basing this on not this match alone. I would be happy to provide 
more matches & statistics if you would like them. I think having the 
Guestimated ratings based on GGRaccoon is a good way to relate 
the error rate to actual achievable ratings, and ratings over 2000 
should only apply to a perfect match.

Regards,
Peter



Player                          GGraccoon               porum          

Checkerplay statistics:

Total moves:                    216                     205
Unforced moves:                 199                     181

Moves marked very good            0                       0
Moves marked good                 0                       0
Moves marked interesting          0                       0
Moves unmarked                  210                     190
Moves marked doubtful             6                       7
Moves marked bad                  0                       6
Moves marked very bad             0                       2

Error rate (total)              -0.633 ( -6.675%)       -1.699 (-17.912%)
Error rate (pr. move)           -0.003 ( -0.034%)       -0.009 ( -
0.099%)

Checker play rating:            Extra-terrestrial       World class         

Rolls marked very lucky           4                       3
Rolls marked lucky               10                      12
Rolls unmarked                  199                     186
Rolls marked unlucky              3                       3
Rolls marked very unlucky         0                       1
Luck rate (total)               +3.542 (+69.975%)       +2.673 (+43.276%)
Luck rate (pr. move)            +0.016 ( +0.324%)       +0.013 ( 
+0.211%)

Luck rating:                    None                    None           


Cube decisions statistics:

Total cube decisions            114                     130
Doubles                           4                       5
Takes                             2                       4
Pass                              3                       0

Missed doubles around DP          3 (-0.278 ( -2.278%)    0 
(+0.000 ( +0.000%)
Missed doubles around TG          0 (+0.000 ( +0.000%)    1 (-
0.038 ( -0.249%)
Wrong doubles around DP           1 (-0.041 ( -0.250%)    0 
(+0.000 ( +0.000%)
Wrong doubles around TG           0 (+0.000 ( +0.000%)    1 (-
0.003 ( -0.036%)
Wrong takes                       2 (-0.142 ( -1.358%)    0 (+0.000 ( 
+0.000%)
Wrong passes                      0 (+0.000 ( +0.000%)    0 
(+0.000 ( +0.000%)
Error rate (total)              -0.461 ( -3.886%)       -0.041 ( -0.285%)
Error rate (per cube decision)  -0.004 ( -0.034%)       -0.000 ( -
0.002%)

Cube decision rating:           Extra-terrestrial       Extra-terrestrial   


Overall statistics:

Error rate (total)              -1.094 (-10.560%)       -1.741 (-18.197%)
Error rate (per decision)       -0.003 ( -0.034%)       -0.006 ( -0.059%)
Overall rating:                 Extra-terrestrial       World class         

Match winning chance
against opponent:                 57.64%                  42.36%
Guestimated abs. rating:        +2095.14                +2038.05


The following section of this message contains a file attachment
prepared for transmission using the Internet MIME message format.
If you are using Pegasus Mail, or any another MIME-compliant system,
you should be able to save it or view it from within your mailer.
If you cannot, please ask your system administrator for assistance.

   ---- File information -----------
     File:  GGraccoon vs. porum 2002Aug041239.gnubg
     Date:  4 Aug 2002, 15:38
     Size:  432197 bytes.
     Type:  Unknown

GGraccoon vs. porum 2002Aug041239.gnubg
Description: Binary data