[Top][All Lists]
[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs
From: |
Joern Thyssen |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs |
Date: |
Mon, 8 Sep 2003 15:25:53 +0000 |
User-agent: |
Mutt/1.4.1i |
On Mon, Sep 08, 2003 at 10:39:37AM +0200, address@hidden wrote
> Now that the external player bugs are dead I tried playing some 17pt
> matches expert-expert using different met's.
>
> I think the results show that the differences between the mets are
> completely negligible in terms of equivalent rating strength points.
>
> Playing 100 17pt matches mec26-woolsey, analyse using woolsey.xml (also
> at expert level) I get the follolwing effective ratings for the mec26
> table with 2200 being defined as expert level. On average the difference
> is a single rating point caused by cube "errors". Of course the expert
> level analysis only shows how small the difference between the tables
> is.
I think you need much more than 100 matches.
If mec26 was a 51-49 favorite you would need around 20,000 to get a
95% CI interval of +/- 1.96 * (sqrt(0.5/20,000)) = +/- 1%.
If mec26 is a 50.1 to 49.9 favourite then you need 2,000,000 matches :-)
Tricks like pairing dice may reduce the variance leading to fewer
games, and you may use the luck adjusted results to reduce the variance.
It would be more interesting to do the experiment at various match
scores instead. I guess that was what Douglas suggested?
This should detect the match scores where each table has problems. Of
course, if the table is wrong at, say, -3,-4, this will cause ripple
effects through the table.
Jørn
pgpEq2WBbsKvb.pgp
Description: PGP signature
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Jim Segrave, 2003/09/01
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Joern Thyssen, 2003/09/03
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Nardy Pillards, 2003/09/04
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Joern Thyssen, 2003/09/04
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Nardy Pillards, 2003/09/04
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Nardy Pillards, 2003/09/04
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: The importance of METs, Nardy Pillards, 2003/09/02