It seems to me, that where exact figures are there
that must apply based on the score and cube value, as
in this position, they reaaly should be used.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, September 05, 2009 6:15
AM
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Use of Two-Sided
DB in matches
Because Gnugb plays based on the score and cube
value (When in Match play). When it evaluates it doesnt blindly use the 2
sided bearoff database because the static values the 2 sided database dont
account for score by itself. Jankowskis forumlas are applied to the values
that come from the DB and the eval continues. The bigger question is, is
Jankowskis formula at fault in how we use it.
I dont see this as a
bug still. But it doesnt mean the methodology has been verified.
On
04/09/09 10:56 PM, "Neil Robins" <address@hidden>
wrote:
It has occurred
to me that in a position like this previously discussed one:
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=47213
GNU
Backgammon Position ID:
gwEAQCoAAAAAAA Match
ID :
cAmgACAAGAAA +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
O: gnubg |
|
| O
O
| OOO 2 points |
|
| O
O
| OO |
|
|
|
OO |
|
|
|
OO |
|
|
|
OO v|
|BAR|
|
5 point match (Cube: 1) |
|
|
|
XX |
|
|
|
XX |
|
|
|
XX |
|
|
|
XX On roll |
|
| X X X X
| XXX 3
points +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
X: Neil
The
MWC chance following Double/Take is directly obtainable from the Two-Sided
Database. Doubling produces an automatic redouble so the situation is in
effect cubeless. The DB gives Cubeless equity: +0.4707.
Therefore where x = MWC/100 x - (1 - x) = 0.4707 x =
0.73535 MWC = 73.535% after Double/Take This is in very close
agreement with the XG rollout.
Is
there any reason GNU analysis cannot use this exact method?
I feel
I still get complete nonsense here with the latest windows
build.
7-ply
cubeless MWC 67.39% (Money: +0.387) 0.694 0.000
0.000 - 0.306 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. No double
70.06% 2.
Double, pass 75.08% (
5.01%) 3. Double, take
69.36% (
-0.70%) Proper cube action: No double, take (12.3%)
It
also sure worries me to get rollout results that are quite certainly
wrong.
Rollout details: Centered 1-cube: 0.728 0.000
0.000 - 0.272 0.000 0.000 CL 68.25% CF 70.66% [0.000
0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF
0.00%] Player gnubg owns 2-cube: 0.732 0.000
0.000 - 0.268 0.000 0.000 CL 81.71% CF 73.16% [0.000
0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF
0.00%] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 129600 games,
Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865036646 and quasi-random
dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0
0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for
1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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