Re: [Swarm-Modelling] Agent-based model of a professional association

[Glen E. P. Ropella]

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Hey Todd,

What are the objectives for using this simulation?

T Wallace wrote:
> I've worked in the IT departments of professional
> associations for many years, and when I found out
> about agent-based models for simulating complex
> systems, it seemed like the perfect tool for trying to
> figure out what goes on at associations.
> 
> I started with NetLogo and after a few tries, ended up
> with a system that showed some of the same up-and-down
> cycles that I see at associations. 
> 
> Here's what I know about associations after working
> for them behind-the-scenes for years:
> 
> 1. If you stick with the basic three departments:
> conventions, membership, and publications, you can set
> up an association for just about any interest or
> professional group. Take a look at all the
> associations in Washington DC, for instance.
> 
> 2. I learned from the marketing people I work with
> that it takes seven to nine "presentations" of a
> product before you can get someone to decide to buy
> it. These presentations can be advertisements in your
> journals, postcards, mentions in your e-newsletters,
> etc.
> 
> So, turning to a more familiar tool (to me) for making
> computer programs, I used VB.NET in Visual Studio 2005
> to make an agent-based model of an association. Here
> are some screen shots:
> 
> http://www.vindustries.com/insideassociation.html
> 
> Right now, each agent has a variable associated with
> it that keeps track of the recency or effectiveness of
> the last "presentation" of the association. Each agent
> loses "interest" at slightly different rates. A few
> agents are "true believers" who don't lose interest no
> matter how few times they get a "presentation" of the
> association. There is also an "impulse buy" function
> that happens very infrequently immediately after a
> presentation, even if the agent's total charge of
> recency is low.
> 
> Right now, the boost or fade of the variable that
> tracks recency-of-presentation is linear, but I
> suspect that there are better representations of
> people's response to advertising out there -- maybe
> the sigma function we use in neural networks? Any
> others?


- --
glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846, http://tempusdictum.com
Cynics regarded everybody as equally corrupt... Idealists regarded
everybody as equally corrupt, except themselves. -- Robert Anton Wilson

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