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[Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency
From: |
Albert Silver |
Subject: |
[Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency |
Date: |
Mon, 15 Sep 2003 16:33:56 -0300 |
I was going over a match and asked GNU to analyze a cube decision at
3-ply just out of curiosity. Here is what it said:
Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.345 (Money: +0.343)
72.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 27.5% 9.7% 0.9%
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.679
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.321)
3. Double, take +0.671 ( -0.007)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (2.2%)
So far no problem. Doubling is borderline and I have 72.5% winning
chances. Still, I decided to run a rollout:
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.369 (Money: +0.362)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.862
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.138)
3. Double, take +0.747 ( -0.115)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (45.4%)
Rollout details:
Player SubtleOne owns 2-cube:
73.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 27.0% 8.9% 0.9% CL +0.369 CF +0.862
[ 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% CL 0.008 CF 0.016]
Player MartinKrainer owns 4-cube:
74.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 26.0% 8.8% 0.9% CL +0.847 CF +0.747
[ 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% CL 0.016 CF 0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1179198464 and
quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Now I'm really confused. According to this everything is improved. I
have better winning chances, and I get gammoned less, yet now doubling
is a big mistake. Why?
Mind you, it's perfectly ok that I doubled wrong, I just don't
understand the numbers.
Albert
- [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency,
Albert Silver <=