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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency
From: |
Ned Cross |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency |
Date: |
Tue, 16 Sep 2003 10:53:57 -0700 |
I'm not sure if perhaps Gammonline might be
a better forum for the discussion, but
could it be that 2-ply or 3-ply cube
analysis is actually BETTER than 0-ply cube handling in rollouts?
I don't have your original message, but
IIRC the rollout was 0-ply. It also looks like a position that 2-ply
checker-play would play better than 0-ply.
Ned
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, September 16, 2003 10:25
AM
Subject: RE: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation
inconsistency
>
> > It would be great if you
posted the position - even if you don't think
> > it is relevant to the
problem you are facing.
>
> Naturally it is no problem to show the
position, but as I said, it is
> completely unimportant whether my
decision was wrong or right.
>
> GNU Backgammon Position ID:
7gCAIOY2JgFCAA
>
Match ID : UQmgAkAAEAAA
>
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O:
MartinKrainer
>
|
| | X O O X |
OO 4 points
>
|
| | O
O | OO
>
|
| | O
O | O
>
|
|
|
| O
>
|
|
|
| O
>
v|
|BAR|
| 21 point match
>
|
|
|
|
>
|
|
|
|
>
|
| |
X |
>
|
X | | X X
X X | On roll
> |
X X X O |
| X X X O X |
2 points
>
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X:
SubtleOne (Cube: 2)
>
> What is important is the difference in the
size of errors from (-0.007)
> to (-0.115) when *everything* in the
percentages is improved:
>
>
> Cube analysis
>
3-ply cubeless equity +0.345 (Money: +0.343)
>
72.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 27.5%
9.7% 0.9%
>
^^^^^
^^^^
> 3. Double, take
+0.671 ( -0.007)
>
^^^^^^^^^
>
>
> Rollout cubeless equity +0.369
(Money: +0.362)
> 3. Double,
take +0.747 (
-0.115)
>
^^^^^^^^^
> Player SubtleOne owns 2-cube:
>
73.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 27.0%
8.9% 0.9% CL +0.369 CF +0.862
>
^^^^^
^^^^
> Player MartinKrainer owns 4-cube:
>
74.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 26.0%
8.8% 0.9% CL +0.847 CF +0.747
>
^^^^^
^^^^
>
> If my winning percentages according to the rollout
*improved* from 72.5%
> to 73% or 74% then why did the size of the error
*worsen* from -0.007 to
> -0.115 ?? That is what I want to understand.
Mind you I also get
> gammoned less in the rollouts.
>
>
Albert
>
>
>
>
>
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