Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances

[Christian Anthon]

Hi Achim,

it is not an entirely easy question to answer. But here is a short
explanation of the numbers:

Luck total EMG (MWC)                    -5.700 (-12.144%)       -2.564
(+20.291%)

means that B gained 20.291+12.144 = 32.435% MWC by luck. As he
presumably started the match with 50% MWC, that means that he gained
100-50-32.435=17.57% MWC through skill:

Luck adjusted result                            -17.57%
         +17.57%

or that he wins 32.43:67.57% of the matches. Whether these numbers are
good or meaningful I don't know.

Christian.

On Sat, Aug 2, 2008 at 5:36 PM, Mueller Achim <address@hidden> wrote:
> Hi folks,
>
> I have a question regarding the error rates and match winning chances.
>
>                                                                        A
>                                   B
> Overall Statistics:
> Error total EMG (MWC)                   -3.935 (-28.802%)       -4.498
> (-25.202%)
> Error rate mEMG (MWC)                   -8.3   ( -0.061%)               -9.6
>   ( -0.054%)
> Snowie error rate                                       -4.0   ( +0.000%)
>             -4.6   ( +0.000%)
> Overall rating                                  Advanced
>    Advanced
> Actual result                                           -50.00%
>             +50.00%
> Luck adjusted result                            -17.57%
>     +17.57%
> Luck based FIBS rating diff.            -139.10
> Error based abs. FIBS rating            1966.7
>  1955.2
> Chequerplay errors rating loss          69.9                            73.1
> Cube errors rating loss                 13.4                            21.6
>
>
> Luck Statistics:
> Luck total EMG (MWC)                    -5.700 (-12.144%)       -2.564
> (+20.291%)
> Luck rate mEMG (MWC)                    -11.5   ( -0.025%)              -5.2
>   ( +0.041%)
> Luck rating                                             None
>            None
>
>
>
> Some Snowie numbers (same match to 21 point):
>
> Error rate:                                     3.377           4.441
> Match winning chance:           53.27%          46.73%
> Average luck rate:                      -3.669          3.669
>
>
> using gnubg's Luck adjusted result player B was 67.57% favorite and up
> 139.10 fibs rating point?! Comparing all these numbers with th Snowie
> analysis I'm totally puzzled now. Also see this thread from may:
> http://www.nabble.com/match-winning-chances-td17190905.html (which I tried
> to follow, but ...).
>
> Which gnubg numbers are the most reliable for computing the match winning
> chances in a match to a certain amount of points (based on the error rates)?
> Is there a formula which can be used for computing match winning chances for
> other match lengths based on the given numbers of a analysis, e.g. take this
> 21p match and compute the chances in a 13p match.
>
> Ciao
>
> Achim
>
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