Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances

[Mueller Achim]

Hi Christian,

Am 05.08.2008 um 15:13 schrieb Christian Anthon:

> Hi Achim,
>
> it is not an entirely easy question to answer. But here is a short
> explanation of the numbers:
>
> Luck total EMG (MWC)                    -5.700 (-12.144%)       -2.564
> (+20.291%)
>
> means that B gained 20.291+12.144 = 32.435% MWC by luck. As he
> presumably started the match with 50% MWC, that means that he gained
> 100-50-32.435=17.57% MWC through skill:
>
> Luck adjusted result                            -17.57%
>         +17.57%
>
> or that he wins 32.43:67.57% of the matches. Whether these numbers are
> good or meaningful I don't know.

Are sure about this? Then Robert-Jan Veldhuizen mus be wrong:

http://www.gammonlife.com/gnu/gnu2.htm

# Luck adjusted result GNUBG also measures the amount of luck a player  
got every roll.
Adding it all up, GNUBG compensates the actual result above for luck  
and comes up
with an adjusted figure. +0.83% and -0.83% here means that GNUBG  
thinks Y-33 had
50.83% chance to win this match, compared to my 49.17%. Since GNUBG  
has "removed" the
luck, this should be an unbiased skill indicator. Unfortunately, it  
isn't always very
accurate, especially not for shorter matches, but a useful figure  
nevertheless.


No matter whether I use your interpretation (player B wins 32.43%,  
player A 67.57%) or
his (vice versa), this number can't be very meaningful. Your "skill"  
always depends on
how much luck you have. With an error rate difference less than 1  
(snowie) the
difference in skill can't be that big. But perhaps I miss something  
here.

That's why I asked for the fibs ratings. I guess these numbers are  
more reliable
regarding match winning chances.

Ciao

Achim