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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 129, Issue 7
From: |
M B |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 129, Issue 7 |
Date: |
Sat, 17 Aug 2013 16:23:13 -0500 |
Howdy Frank,
Playing yourself with random dice would definitely not produce an obvious 5:5
outcome. Even if GNU played against itself the outcome would favor one side or
the other because of the randomness of the dice (I'm thinking this may have
been done many times already). A 7 point match can end 8-0 just like a 7 point
match can go 4-3. Doubling, gammons, backgammons all matter in the statistical
nature of the game. To accept a double, refuse a double, "Should I stay or
should I go", these are all human issues. GNU makes the statistical move
without emotional cloudiness or having to count or take allot of time to
remember. GNU is not there to win or lose, its just there to play. It does not
care what the outcome is. If it did OMG this would be a completely different
conversation. Visions of Terminator, The Matrix and Demon Seed pop in my head :(
Here's the deal, if I have not explained it already, as human players we are
not detached from the game. Even if we think we are, there will always be those
moments when (even we were are playing ourselves), we favor one side or the
other based on position, good rolls, bad rolls, perceived outcome, etc. I would
even go further to say we flip flop during games for the same reasons as well
as possibly to experience a particular scenario we rarely encounter, or an
extreme comeback or blowout, the list is limitless. The brain is powerful and
exceptional but it is also flawed when it comes to unemotional decisions. Most
human beings simply can't perform at the level of a computer that uses years
and years of compiled statistical data to make its next move based on the
current roll of the dice and position of the counters on the board.
It has already been mentioned but JD's sample size is far too small and
emotionally skewed. I just address@hidden, you stay with us.
On Aug 17, 2013, at 12:36, "Frank Berger" <address@hidden> wrote:
Hi JD,
@JD: so if I got you right, you played 10 7-pt matches against yourself and one
side lost 9 of them. I've never heard of such a occurence in the real life. It
is an obvious fact that with true random the result must be 5:5 and this can
statistically surely proved. Too bad that I lack this skill, but for me it's
obvious.
More serious: writing a good Backgammon AI is difficult. Writing a complex
program is difficult. Writing a random number generator is far easier. Using an
international rewarded, hundreds of times tested RNG is trivial. Do you believe
that all that smart guys developing Gnu-BG all fail in a trivial issue and
don't recognize it in the last 15 years?
@all Other: How often do you have convinced one of the conspiracy theorists?
From my experience it's < 20%
ciao
Frank
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