One interesting bit of data from Dick Mao's survey analysis centers around keybinding sets. Very roughly, about 2/3 of respondents use the default keybindings, and the other third use evil-mode. The correlation that seems relevant:
The median evil-modalist is seven emacs-years younger than the median traditionalist.
Reading the tea-leaves a bit, I think this suggests that at least many of these younger users are NOT seeing the toolbar normally, since the vast majority of the ways that a newer user is likely to get to vi-style bindings (via packaged setups like spacemacs or doom, by following config-file advice from the community, etc.) also disable the toolbar.
This supports the (widespread?) theory that for most new users, the toolbar is present only at the very earliest moments of using emacs, if that.